Il debito in comune fa la forza (europea)/1
Il Foglio di carta ha avviato una riflessione sul salto politico che servirebbe all'Unione europea per sopravvivere. Il debito pubblico statale non è bellissimo, ma il debito pubblico in comune può quantomeno fare la forza di una federazione di Stati. Ecco quello che scrive oggi Eduardo Porter sul New York Times:
The main problem is that while leaders eagerly embraced the monetary bond, they rejected its necessary complement: a central budget that would transfer money from successful regions to underperforming ones, as the United States government sends tax dollars collected in Massachusetts to pay for unemployment benefits in Nevada.
The euro fed the illusion that Greece, Spain and Italy were as creditworthy as Germany or the Netherlands, propelling a decade-long credit boom in Europe's less-developed periphery. And it was spectacularly ill-designed to deal with the shock when capital flows to those nations suddenly stopped. Weak countries not only had to rely on their own devices; they had to do so without a currency or a monetary policy of their own to absorb the blow.
Porter descrive il possibile scenario di un eurobreak up, cita il caso argentino ma mette in guardia da eccessive semplificazioni. Una separazione dalla moneta unica non sarà un pranzo di gala:
Even with a well-coordinated separation, households and firms with debts across borders could go bankrupt if their wages and savings were devalued but their debt remained the same. Banks in a number of countries might collapse. Companies could abruptly lose access to funds. It would probably require long bank holidays to prevent capital flight and allow for new currencies to be minted. A messy divorce could reverberate through the streets and political systems.
Leggi anche
1) Hamilton, chi era costui? (oggi sul Foglio di carta)
2) Riflessioni semiserie di Niall Ferguson sullo stato dell'Ue (dal Foglio del 15 maggio)
3) Soltanto un populista può indicare la strada dell'Argentina per l'Italia. Intervista a Pierpaolo Barbieri (Harvard)
