Rubio meets Haftar in Washington as Dabaiba balks and skips the summit

Yesterday, Saddam Haftar, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Libya's Armed Forces, met with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington. The one-hour meeting, however, took place without representatives from Libya's western authorities. Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba remained in Tripoli, buying time, and for now the U.S.-sponsored agreement to reunify the country has been postponed.

The atmosphere in the Libyan capital is tense. While Haftar was shaking hands with Rubio during the meeting, first reported by Il Foglio last week, dozens of militia leaders gathered in Tripoli to discuss how to respond should the agreement move forward. For the moment, concern prevails. Yesterday, Libyan social media circulated a 2009 photograph showing then-U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton shaking hands with Muatassim Gaddafi, the son of Muammar Gaddafi, shortly before the U.S.-led bombing campaign in Libya began. The message was clear: the United States is not to be trusted.

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"Dabaiba knows very well that if Saddam were to become commander of the armed forces, his ambition would be to follow the path of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Egypt. He would come under increasing pressure from the militias. Dabaiba fears he himself could end up being arrested or forced into exile," Tarek Megerisi of the European Council on Foreign Relations told Il Foglio.

Not everyone in Tripoli shares that view, however, nor even within the ruling family itself. Ibrahim Dabaiba, the prime minister's nephew, reportedly tried until the very last moment to travel to Washington and meet Haftar in Rubio's presence. "Ibrahim knows that if he does not seize this opportunity now, he is unlikely to have a place in any future institutional reshuffle," one source said. The prime minister's nephew had even secured a U.S. visa but later sought assurances regarding immunity upon arrival in the United States because of previous criminal charges—assurances that U.S. officials were unable to provide. Saddam, by contrast, encountered no such difficulties, benefiting from considerably stronger credentials.

His visit was undoubtedly facilitated by the support of Ballard Consulting Group, an American lobbying firm led by Brian Ballard, one of Donald Trump's leading supporters and donors. As revealed by The Washington Post in February, Saddam Haftar and his father, Khalifa Haftar, signed a $2 million lobbying contract with the firm to strengthen relations with "political institutions, research organizations, and other entities involved in the development or discussion of U.S. policy."

Backing Saddam's bid to lead a newly unified Libya are one hundred members of the eastern parliament in Tobruk and even Abdelhakim Belhaj, a prominent leader of the anti-Gaddafi revolution, former head of Tripoli's Military Council, and a figure who has previously faced accusations over his ties to Islamist extremism.

One of the main obstacles to reaching an agreement in Libya remains the credibility of the negotiating parties themselves. Saddam arrived at Washington Dulles International Airport aboard an Airbus A319 until a few months ago owned by Alushibe Holding, a company controlled by Ahmed Gadalla, a businessman close to the Haftars. Gadalla was the subject of an Il Foglio investigation later corroborated in May by the latest report of the U.N. Panel of Experts, which accuses him of arms and fuel trafficking in Libya.

Three days before Saddam's arrival, Abdulsalam al Zoubi, Tripoli's Deputy Defense Minister and commander of the 111th Brigade—one of the most influential military formations in western Libya—had also traveled to Washington. Accompanied by Massad Boulos and represented by another American consulting firm, al Zoubi visited both the Pentagon and the State Department, though he did not meet Rubio.

The overall impression he left on U.S. officials was reportedly far from positive. "No one really knew who he was, and it quickly became clear that he is simply the leader of a militia with a terrible record of violence and human rights abuses," informed sources said. Nevertheless, al Zoubi remains one of the few genuinely influential actors in western Libya.

According to Il Foglio, after his effort to broker an agreement in Washington failed, Boulos asked al Zoubi to invite Saddam Haftar to Tripoli. In the end, al Zoubi refused, fearing such a move would ignite public anger in the capital.

Although no agreement was signed yesterday, Boulos has no intention of abandoning the initiative. On Friday, he publicly outlined his plan for the first time during an interview with the Saudi television network Al Hadath, seeking to reassure Libyans. Trump's in-law confirmed that the objective is to finalize an agreement between eastern and western Libya "in Washington and in Trump's presence, but only once all parties have reached a consensus."

He also insisted that the American initiative "complements" the United Nations' own roadmap—which focuses on elections—and that any agreement "will ultimately reflect the will of the Libyan people."

His reassurances, however, have done little to calm fears in Tripoli, where many remain deeply concerned that a power-sharing arrangement could be imposed from above and presented as a fait accompli.

"Yesterday's meeting in Washington could mark the beginning of a genuine negotiation," researcher Jalel Harchaoui said. "If the Americans decide to increase the pressure, Dabaiba may ultimately have little choice but to agree."